![]() With lower overall turnout in midterm elections, groups that are more likely to vote thus exude a larger influence on the outcome. Source: United States Elections Project 2. Chart 1 and Table 1: Voter turnout among the voting-eligible population (VEP), 1972-2016 If that holds, we’d expect a midterm turnout in the low 40s next year given 2016’s 59.3% VEP turnout, but of course that may vary. On average, midterm turnout has been about 17 points lower than presidential turnout in the 26th Amendment era. Chart 1 and Table 1 lay out the substantial differences in turnout that depend on whether or not the presidency is on the ballot. Since the 26th Amendment to the Constitution expanded the franchise to all eligible citizens 18 years or older, 1994-1996 was the closest midterm turnout has been to presidential turnout - 41.1% of the voting-eligible population (VEP) cast ballots in the 1994 midterm and just 51.7% of the VEP voted in the 1996 presidential contest. ![]() Ever since, presidential turnout has always exceeded midterm turnout. According to available data, the last time midterm turnout exceeded the previous presidential election was in 1838, when 70.8% of the eligible population voted versus the 56.5% who voted in the 1836 presidential election. The most fundamental difference between presidential and midterm cycles is that far fewer voters participate when there is no presidential contest. Turnout is always lower in midterm elections For the most part, this analysis is based on exit poll data: We used the national exit poll data for the presidential race in presidential years and the national exit poll data for the national House vote in midterm years. ![]() What follows is a look at the similarities and differences between the two kinds of national electorates. Basically, midterm electorates are smaller, older, and less diverse than presidential ones, but the demographic voting patterns and divisions that we see in midterms are quite similar to presidential contests. With politicos everywhere turning their eyes to the still-distant 2018 midterm election, we thought it would be useful to review some of the basic differences and similarities between the electorates in presidential and midterm cycles. Editor’s Note: The Crystal Ball is taking off next week for the University of Virginia’s spring recess. ![]()
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